BTC - λF Dashboard
Combined λF signal with dynamic thresholds (p90/p95). Refreshes every 60 seconds.
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Status Card
📊 - V4: It was completed on November 16, 2025.
📊 - V3: It was completed on October 26, 2025.
📊 - V2: It was completed on September 25, 2025.
📊 - V1: It was completed on September 11, 2025.
Master Roadmap: Pragmatic & Philosophical Layers
Pragmatic Path (ChatGPT)
- Validation: Collect 100+ alerts, verify statistical strength.
- Interpretation: Identify when and why λF triggers, analyze components (VOL_Z, LEV_STRESS, FNG_NORM).
- Application: Publish papers, pilot with funds, build financial product.
Philosophical Path (Gemini)
- Observation: Each alert is not just data, but a laboratory test of the Cosmic Constitution.
- Understanding: Refine λF as the “physics of markets” evolves through data.
- Paradigm Shift: Finance, science, and philosophy converge into one unified room.
Timeline
- Now: 100+ alerts → first statistical proof.
- 6 months: Whitepaper → research + marketing tool.
- 1 year: Pilot study with hedge/crypto funds.
- 2 years: Academic publication + financial productization.
🌌 Pragmatic steps show us how to walk, while philosophical depth reminds us why we walk. Together, they form the Flux journey — from data to paradigm.
📊 What Does This Monitor Try to Prove?
The λF Monitor is an early warning system developed to detect sudden increases in risk in the markets in advance.
The following three types of data are critical to proving the success of the theory:
- 1. Critical Jumps Detected in Advance: The λF value exceeds the p90/p95 thresholds, becoming Critical or Risky. A significant movement in price or volatility occurs shortly thereafter.
- 2. Quiet Normal Periods: The λF remains Normal for an extended period with no major market movement. This indicates a low false positive rate.
- 3. Persistent Rising Risk: λF remains high for several hours/days, and these periods typically result in trend breaks or liquidity squeezes.
📌 If these three data types are observed in live tests, our model will be strongly validated both academically and financially.
🧭 λF Monitor Guide
With color codes and small examples, this section explains what the panel is watching and when it triggers alerts at a glance.
λF is considered Critical when it exceeds the p95 threshold for at least 3 consecutive bars. This often precedes sharp volatility / directional moves within 24–72 hours.
- Evidence metric: Precision (Vol ≥ p95, 72h)
- Evidence metric: Lead-time (hours)
λF above p90 is “Risky”; if it’s very close to p95 (≈0.01 below), it shows a Pre-Critical warning. When persist (≥2 bars) occurs, a minor alert is opened.
- Evidence metric: Minor → Critical conversion rate
- UI: Yellow warning band (approach)
When λF stays below p90 for extended periods, it’s in a “calm regime”. In these times, no alerts means a low false alarm rate.
- Evidence metric: False alarms / week
- Evidence metric: Quiet-day ratio