Status Card — V4
November 2025 · Cross-Asset Continuity Report
1. Timeline Highlights (Nov 1–15)
- Nov 3–11: Crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL) entered a high-compression λF cluster → rapid volatility expansion.
- Oct 29–Nov 11: Gold triggered 5 critical alerts → all 5 achieved realized vol p95 hits.
- SPX: No λF spikes; remained in a “silent band,” absorbing macro pressure without producing local tension.
2. Crypto (BTC · ETH · SOL) — Summary of 18 New Alerts
- Precision (Realized Vol > p95): 0.61 – 0.78
- 2σ Move Precision: ~0.28 – 0.36
- Median Lead Time: ~19.5 hours
- λF Amplitude: 0.501 – 0.588 (critical shear-tension band)
- Cross-Asset Sync: BTC & SOL aligned; ETH lagging by ~2–4 hours
- False Positives: ~22–33% → ~70% accuracy overall
3. Gold (XAUUSD) — Summary of 5 New Alerts
- Precision (Realized Vol > p95): 5/5 → 100%
- 2σ Move Precision: 1/5 → 20%
- Median Lead Time: ~24 hours
- Component Pattern: VOL_Z low → LEV_STRESS high → λF spike → volatility expansion
4. SPX — Silent Domain Observation
No alerts triggered. λF remained in a 0.38–0.47 narrow band, indicating a macro structure that absorbs stress instead of generating new turbulence.
5. Cross-Asset Synthesis
- Crypto: ~70% precision, 19.5h median lead time, fast-release compression cluster
- Gold: 100% precision, 24h median lead time, stable volatility-only shocks
- SPX: No signals → silent macro background
“November V4 reveals a split regime: crypto breathes fast, gold breathes slow, and SPX does not breathe at all. λF captures every shift in gold, most shifts in crypto, and waits silently above the S&P 500 for the next transformation.”