Status Card — V3
October 2025 · Cross-Asset Continuity Report
Timeline
- Sep 24–25: BTC sell-off captured (V2 context)
- Oct 9–11: Macro-shock (tariff news) → 3× p95 hits (BTC/SOL)
- Oct 20–21: Gold critical alerts → p95 realized vol hits
Metrics
- Precision (vol_p95): ~0.40–0.85
- Median lead time: ~23.5h
Notes
- The transition to the p95AbsHr base in crypto evaluation has been planned.
- The real FNG metric for gold (ETF flow / news sensitivity / COT) has been planned.
Summary: The events of October 9–11 and October 20–21 confirmed that λF could predict regime shifts in both crypto and gold. This card V3 summarizes the models “multi-domain” power and 72-hour self-evaluation mechanism.